US Open 2009

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1-ROGER FEDERER V. 4-NOVAK DJOKOVIC

Here we go again with the third straight US Open clash between the sweet-swinging Swiss and the sturdy Serbian. In 2007, Federer wowed the inexperienced Djokovic, who played an ambitious yet sporadic match in the final. In 2008, Federer buried an emotionally exhausted Djokovic -- who had just come off his wrong-headed confrontation with the night-time crowd following his quarterfinal win over Andy Roddick -- in four sets.

But this should be a different Djokovic who shows up for their 2009 meeting, one who reconnected with the crowd with a hilarious imitation of John McEnroe after his win over Radek Stepanek and one who appears to have a bit of fire back in his belly. While the expert counterpuncher has had a fine year outside of the majors, his performance in the season's first three Slams has been less than impressive. He retired against Andy Roddick on a hot day at the Australian Open, faded against Philipp Kohlschreiber at Roland Garros and was out-thought and out-worked by Tommy Haas at Wimbledon.

But he's picked up steam in New York, becoming much more offensive on big points and pulling himself out of his defensive posture when it really mattered. The 2008 Australian Open champion can out-steady just about anyone outside of the top 10, but some of the other elite players are just as consistent and are willing to go right at him in critical moments.

That's the case with Federer, who enters this match with an 8-4 record against his foe and overpowered the Serb in the Cincinnati final last month. But Djokovic did keep Federer guessing in a win over him at Miami and Monte Carlo this year, too, and he believes he has the right recipe to trip him up.

But what Djokovic cannot count on is a shaky performance by Federer, where the Swiss' forehand will go off, he'll begin to frame backhands and serve at a low percentage. Federer did have some questionable moments in his tight win over Robin Soderling, but the Swede is a pure power player who can take it to anyone when he's hot. Djokovic is not that guy and needs to work the points before he can close them out.

The Serbian owns a better and more forceful backhand than the Swiss does, but Roger trumps him on the forehand side with his serve and with his variety. Djokovic runs just as fast but isn't as quick off the mark, and while it can be argued that he has a harder return of serve and at times is more willing to charge the cords, his edge is marginal at best.

What Djokovic can do is out-steady him, make the Swiss play more difficult shots than he likes and, to some degree, cast some doubts in his head, just like he did when he took him down in the 2008 Aussie Open semis.

But Federer has been serving wonderfully since May, has improved his backhand return and showed in Cincinnati he knows exactly what he has to do when the tense moments arrive. Djokovic will cause the Federer nation a lot of angst in the first few sets, but the Swiss will turn on the jets in what should be the most entreating match ever and triumph in five. Mark down six US Open finals in a row for the remarkable Federer.


3-RAFAEL NADAL V. 6-JUAN MARTIN DEL POTRO

This is a taller task for Nadal than either of his last two high-quality foes, Gael Monfils and Fernando Gonzalez, and not just because del Potro is 6-foot-5. Nadal leads del Potro 4-2 in their head-to-head match-ups but has lost their past two meetings on hard courts this year at Miami and Montreal, and in Canada last month, he was overpowered by the slugging Argentine.

The six-time Grand Slam champion knows what he has to do to win this match, which is to yank the tall guy around, mix it up, attack the short ball and keep a very high percentage of first serves in. He also has to return the ball deeply because the rangy del Potro is excellent at jumping on short balls.

Del Potro has improved his first-serve percentage and location, has one of the game's biggest forehands and moves well for his size. He's not a proven mental giant but did show in Paris when he took Roger Federer to five sets that's he's no longer fearing the important occasions. Here, he's only dropped one set in five matches and is calling the tournament his favorite of the Slams. He's a soft spoken, modest guy, but he's grown in love with the noise and bustle in Ashe Stadium.

There are few guys who are capable of overpowering Nadal, but the 20-year-old is one of them if he gets into a groove with his serve and if he can find a way to fend off Nadal's twisting lefty serves into his backhand and attack the Spaniards second serves.

But Nadal is very aware of what he has to do, which is to make this match as physically draining as possible. That's a tough task, given that he's dealing with an abdominal muscle injury, but Nadal always comes to win and is willing to do whatever it takes to snare a victory. He's going to have to serve and return extremely well to take this contest and be spot on with his shot selection, and while I'm convinced that del Potro can take him to five sets and has enough game now to win a Slam, I just can't see the Argentine getting deep into the trenches with Nadal and surviving intact. Nadal will take what should be a delightful and hard-fought five-set contest.