25-05-2015, 10:38 PM
Interessant stuk
Rafael Nadal: still the undeniable favourite
Monday 25 May 2015
By Matt Trollope
It's hard to remember a scenario in tennis history where a player who has dominated a tournament so thoroughly for so long is considered such an underdog when he arrives for its latest edition.
In an oft-repeated yet nonetheless jaw-dropping stat, Rafael Nadal has loss just one match at Roland-Garros. Ever. His nine titles in the past decade have shattered Grand Slam records and could well be an achievement that forever remains unsurpassed.
Nadal gets his 2015 campaign underway on Tuesday against French wildcard Quentin Halys on Philippe-Chatrier Court.
Yet if the opinions of tennis pundits leading into the 2015 tournament are anything to go by, the Spaniard's charmed run in the French capital will come to an end this year. Of the 11 experts previewing the French Open for ESPN, just two think that Nadal will win. Seven went with Djokovic, as did all three experts at tennis.com. Over at Sports Illustrated, just one of their six experts have Nadal winning the title - the rest fancy the Serb.
But is Djokovic really that much of a favourite, to the point that Nadal should be so thoroughly discounted?
If you look at the history, then probably not.
Cast your minds back to 2011, when Djokovic arrived in the French Open semifinals on a stunning 41-match winning streak, only to be upset by Roger Federer. Nadal, dodging the player who had beaten him in the Madrid and Rome finals just weeks earlier, claimed a customary victory over Federer in the final for his sixth crown in Paris.
In 2014, Djokovic was favoured for the title after Nadal endured a lean claycourt build-up, winning a solitary title in Madrid. And even that came with an asterisk; opponent Kei Nishikori led that final by a set and a break before a back injury forced his retirement. Yet when Djokovic and Nadal met in the decider in Paris, Nadal triumphed in four sets.
So here we are again. Djokovic, the reigning world No.1 and arriving in Paris with a truckload of momentum. And Nadal, coming in under a form cloud.
Yet discount the nine-time French Open winner at your peril.
Djokovic has beaten Nadal five times on clay, yet all in the three-set format of ATP Masters tournaments. In the best-of-five set environment of a match at Roland-Garros, Nadal is 6-0 against the Serb.
The conditions in Paris are tailor-made for Nadal. The clay courts, already so responsive to his viciously heavy topspin, only get more lively as the tournament progresses and the weather traditionally heats up. Nadal, such a physical on-court presence, enjoys the luxury of five sets to wear down opponents or figure out any issues with his own game before the match slips away. With his confidence apparently lacking, this will be hugely beneficial. The day of rest between matches affords Nadal the chance to recharge after deploying his typically intense, bruising style of play. And being back on the courts on which he is practically invincible can only be a major boost for his belief.
If we look at the situation from the perspective of Djokovic - who comes into the French Open on a 22-match winning streak - he has much to lose. According to doubles legend Todd Woodbridge: "There’s a fine line between being prepared and overdone, and my sense is he now has placed enormous pressure on himself due to the brilliance of his season so far.
"Regardless of who you are it wouldn’t be human not think about the streak and when the inevitable loss may come. Perhaps it may have been better to have lost a match over the last month, just to release the pressure valve a little and redirect some attention to the others."
Top players have added their voices to the discussion.
"Regardless of what anybody says to me Rafa is the favourite for the French Open," said Federer.
"The guy has lost only one match at Roland Garros in 10 years, so there's absolutely no way you pass that guy in being the absolute favourite for that tournament."
This writer agrees. There is almost no evidence to suggest otherwise.
Rafael Nadal: still the undeniable favourite
Monday 25 May 2015
By Matt Trollope
It's hard to remember a scenario in tennis history where a player who has dominated a tournament so thoroughly for so long is considered such an underdog when he arrives for its latest edition.
In an oft-repeated yet nonetheless jaw-dropping stat, Rafael Nadal has loss just one match at Roland-Garros. Ever. His nine titles in the past decade have shattered Grand Slam records and could well be an achievement that forever remains unsurpassed.
Nadal gets his 2015 campaign underway on Tuesday against French wildcard Quentin Halys on Philippe-Chatrier Court.
Yet if the opinions of tennis pundits leading into the 2015 tournament are anything to go by, the Spaniard's charmed run in the French capital will come to an end this year. Of the 11 experts previewing the French Open for ESPN, just two think that Nadal will win. Seven went with Djokovic, as did all three experts at tennis.com. Over at Sports Illustrated, just one of their six experts have Nadal winning the title - the rest fancy the Serb.
But is Djokovic really that much of a favourite, to the point that Nadal should be so thoroughly discounted?
If you look at the history, then probably not.
Cast your minds back to 2011, when Djokovic arrived in the French Open semifinals on a stunning 41-match winning streak, only to be upset by Roger Federer. Nadal, dodging the player who had beaten him in the Madrid and Rome finals just weeks earlier, claimed a customary victory over Federer in the final for his sixth crown in Paris.
In 2014, Djokovic was favoured for the title after Nadal endured a lean claycourt build-up, winning a solitary title in Madrid. And even that came with an asterisk; opponent Kei Nishikori led that final by a set and a break before a back injury forced his retirement. Yet when Djokovic and Nadal met in the decider in Paris, Nadal triumphed in four sets.
So here we are again. Djokovic, the reigning world No.1 and arriving in Paris with a truckload of momentum. And Nadal, coming in under a form cloud.
Yet discount the nine-time French Open winner at your peril.
Djokovic has beaten Nadal five times on clay, yet all in the three-set format of ATP Masters tournaments. In the best-of-five set environment of a match at Roland-Garros, Nadal is 6-0 against the Serb.
The conditions in Paris are tailor-made for Nadal. The clay courts, already so responsive to his viciously heavy topspin, only get more lively as the tournament progresses and the weather traditionally heats up. Nadal, such a physical on-court presence, enjoys the luxury of five sets to wear down opponents or figure out any issues with his own game before the match slips away. With his confidence apparently lacking, this will be hugely beneficial. The day of rest between matches affords Nadal the chance to recharge after deploying his typically intense, bruising style of play. And being back on the courts on which he is practically invincible can only be a major boost for his belief.
If we look at the situation from the perspective of Djokovic - who comes into the French Open on a 22-match winning streak - he has much to lose. According to doubles legend Todd Woodbridge: "There’s a fine line between being prepared and overdone, and my sense is he now has placed enormous pressure on himself due to the brilliance of his season so far.
"Regardless of who you are it wouldn’t be human not think about the streak and when the inevitable loss may come. Perhaps it may have been better to have lost a match over the last month, just to release the pressure valve a little and redirect some attention to the others."
Top players have added their voices to the discussion.
"Regardless of what anybody says to me Rafa is the favourite for the French Open," said Federer.
"The guy has lost only one match at Roland Garros in 10 years, so there's absolutely no way you pass that guy in being the absolute favourite for that tournament."
This writer agrees. There is almost no evidence to suggest otherwise.
"Hij heeft misschien nog weinig tegenstand, maar dat is wat anders. En ook niet waar trouwens".
Mooi van Isner, maar nu wel erg jammer dat Russell niet mee doet. Maar wel gunstig voor Querrey. Jammer dat Anderson niet doordrukte, maar dat kan Zeballos mooi doen.
Stunt Wawrinka zou leuk zijn, maar niet als ie vervolgens verliest van Djokovic. Maar als die dan weer verliest van Berdych, maakt het niet uit. Dus vannacht is inderdaad cruciaal.
Mooi van Isner, maar nu wel erg jammer dat Russell niet mee doet. Maar wel gunstig voor Querrey. Jammer dat Anderson niet doordrukte, maar dat kan Zeballos mooi doen.
Stunt Wawrinka zou leuk zijn, maar niet als ie vervolgens verliest van Djokovic. Maar als die dan weer verliest van Berdych, maakt het niet uit. Dus vannacht is inderdaad cruciaal.